Consumer Sentiment Spring 2011

The first week of April I distributed via email the semi-annual consumer sentiment survey to 1466 past participants in programs related to the Seven Rivers region. I received 353 responses for an overall response rate of 24.1%. The table below provides all the data since the inception of the regional survey. We see from August of 2010 to April 2011 the regional overall consumer sentiment index increased slightly from 79.0 to 80.5 overall, while the national index fell slightly over the same period. The Expectations sub index has turned mildly more optimistic rising to 75.5 from 70.9, while the national expectations index over the same period actually fell.

Consumer Sentiment: Fall 2010

The August 2010 data is below. We can see the Seven Rivers Region consumer sentiment index fell slightly from 79.2 to 79.0 while the national index fell more significantly from 73.7 to 69.6. The April 2011 data will be released at the Economics Indicators Breakfast May 4th.

Update: Consumer Sentiment

In February 1,344 Seven Rivers Region participants were again contacted to participate in the consumer sentiment survey. 301 of the participants responded. The over all index increased to 79.2 from 75.2.

Update: Consumer Sentiment

In July I again conducted the consumer sentiment survey using a web based survey. 1,344 people received an invite to complete the survey. The group represents past participants in 7 Rivers Region economic development events, including the semi-annual indicators breakfast meetings. There were a total number of 294 responses for a response rate of 21.9%. Consumer Sentiment for both the region and the nation increased with most of the increase coming from the subset of questions which measure expectations. The regional consumer sentiment index rose from 59.7 in February to 75.2 in July, while the national index rose from 56.3 in February to 66 in July.

Consumer Sentiment

The recent consumer sentiment figures were not good.

Its preliminary index of confidence for July fell to a reading of 64.6 from the final reading for June of 70.8.


July's preliminary reading was well below economists' median forecast for 70.5 and the first fall in the index since February.

In April I presented the results for the local consumer sentiment index:

December 2008 Consumer Sentiment

In December of 2008 I conducted the semi-annual consumer sentiment survey for the 7 Rivers Region.  Approximately 1,100 current and past participants in 7 Rivers Region events were emailed a link to the survey. 238 responses were received.  The overall index for consumer sentiment in the 7 Rivers Region actually rose slightly in December 2008 to 70.9 from 69.9 in August 2008. Whereas the rest of the nation experienced a decline in overall sentiment from 61.2 to 60.1. According to Bloomberg:

“It’s a difficult environment for households right now,” Dean Maki, co-head of U.S. economic research at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “The job market is weighing on confidence. We are seeing activity just falling off.”

The confidence index was forecast to rise to 61.9, according to the median of 54 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from 60 to 65. A preliminary report earlier this month showed a reading of 61.9.

A Commerce Department report earlier today showed the economy shrank at a 3.8 percent pace in the fourth quarter of 2008, the weakest growth pace since 1982. Consumer spending contracted at a 3.5 percent rate in the last three months of 2008.

 

Turning to the current conditions index, based on a subset of questions which ask respondents how they are doing now and how they have been doing over the last year. Again, we appear to have done a bit better than the rest of the nation. The 7 Rivers Region current conditions index rose from 76.5 in August of 2008 to 87.0 in December of 2008. The national index fell from 73.1 to 69.5 in August.

Turning to future expectations. The local expectations index appears to have taken the biggest hit, with the index of future expectations from 65.6 to 60.6. The national number rose from 53.5 to 57.8 over the same interval.

Property Taxes

We recently finished the semi-annual consumer sentiment survey for the 7 Rivers Region. The upcoming September meeting concerns the Wisconsin Way initiative. In preparation we asked our participants some of the questions that have been asked around the state. In particular we asked:

When you think about the property taxes you or your landlord pay on the home in which you live and the services you receive for those taxes would you say property taxes in Wisconsin (or your state of residence) are much too high, somewhat too high, about right, somewhat too low or much too low?

I've joined the following answers and created a word cloud.
a. Much too high
b. Somewhat too high
c. About right
d. Somewhat too low
e. Much too low
f. Other

The fact that you can not find Much Too Low or Somewhat Too Low in the graphic is not a mistake.